A projection tells you where the game lands. The Gate tells you which teased side actually clears the price you're paying for it — leg by leg, against the real margin-of-victory distribution.
A 3-team 10-point teaser at -110 needs every leg to hit 80.6%. The Gate puts that bar next to each leg so you can see which one is dragging the ticket under water.
Margin-of-victory distribution, not a hunch
Each game is simulated to a full margin distribution. The six points you tease through are priced against the shape of that curve, not a rule of thumb.
Clears / short of, leg by leg
Every leg is labeled: clears 80.6% or short of 80.6%. Two of three clearing is a losing teaser, and the slip says so out loud.
Build your own three
Enter team, line and total. The tease adds 10 automatically, the model reprices, and the ticket updates with win probability and payout.
Teaser price toggles
Flip between +120, +100, -110 and -130. The breakeven bar moves with the price so you can see exactly what a worse number costs you.
Free, no account
Open the board, build the ticket, get the number. Nothing to sign up for and nothing to install.
How a ticket gets built
Pick three sidesTake them off the board or type your own: team, line, total. A -5.5 favorite or a +5.5 dog both work.
The tease adds 10-19.5 becomes -9.5, +3.5 becomes +13.5. The Gate reprices each teased number against the game's simulated margin curve.
Read the per-leg barEach leg gets a win probability and a verdict against 80.6%. Green clears, red is short.
Check the ticket, not the vibeTwo of three clearing is not a bet. The slip multiplies the legs and shows the real number against the teaser price you selected.
The math you're fighting
80.6%
At -110 a 3-team teaser pays 0.909 to 1, so the ticket needs to win 52.4% of the time. Spread across three independent legs that is 0.524^(1/3) — about 80.6% per leg. Six points of tease sounds like a lot until you price it: on the wrong number it buys far less than 80.6%, and one bad leg eats the other two.